You might take more seriously historically unprecedented mass uncontrolled immigration, large scale illegal immigration and chronic failures of integration - not least the rape gangs, enabled or worse for at least two decades by every institution for reasons outlined by Louise Casey _ if you really want to understand the Reform surge and reverse it.
It is worth noting Farage’s track record: he doesn’t put the effort into detail.
There is nothing substantial backing up reform apart from vibes despite the import of Danny Kruger and some tories.
You would hope that an adequate media will take the opportunity to examine that in detail.
And observe that every vehicle he has created (ukip, Brexit) has fallen apart the minute he moves away.
Why is that? That is what the press ought to poking at. Sure it may be down to his megalomaniac tendencies.
Or maybe because he doesn’t embed policy. Purposefully. Montgomerie and Kruger, who were supposed to be fleshing this stuff out by now, have not yet delivered.
Why not?
The press needs to stop looking at Farage as a phenomenon and start asking why he consistently fails. Even with some extraordinary minds from the Tories imported.
What’s the pathology?
Once you diagnose the pathology you can argue against it. But right now you are all wondering why he seems to keep winning. Maybe the question is why he has never won. What’s missing?
Clue: policy. And deliberately so.
The thing that screws him is a manifesto and the policy documents behind it. There won’t be any. And he doesn’t want any. Because he wants to avoid commitment. And it’s happened again and again with him. No due diligence because it locks him down.
Might work for UKIP (europe!) or the Brexit party (Europe!).
That’s not going to work as a potential party of gov.
Now how you hang him on that is the media’s challenge.
Maybe ask him what his policy is with regards to government spend on the agricultural sector. No idea. But you can be guaranteed that there is no policy behind it, and he will look like an absolute buffoon when exposed.
But that is his absolute and consistent Achilles heel.
Kind of the point though. Many of the people supporting Farage (and Polanski tbf) don’t really care about policies, they care about something else, literally, some visible form of change.
If you ask Nigel what his policy on government spend on the agricultural sector is he will inevitably say something like ‘backing our British farmers etc. etc.” and what do you do with that? You can keep on asking the question and he will keep it evading it. It’s not a weakness as you term it, it’s one of his strengths, he’s incredibly hard to nail down beyond the vibes of the general electorate
Not so sure it’s incredibly hard to pin down. A ‘decent’ journo like Kuenssberg or Rigby could do it. ‘What is your position on the balance of tax evasion vs productive farming’ and watch him blather. And then hammer it home time after time. To the point it looks hilarious. As will be the case on any politician walking in pants down to a national election when they may be a potential party of government.
The issue is that the media is currently obsessed with Farage as an individual and his carry over from the EU debates + migration. They are the wrong questions.
If you want to make a candidate look like a fool you ask him questions he can’t answer. Over and over. The public isn’t stupid. They’ll get it.
The problem is that for whatever reason the media haven’t been pushed or inclined to do so.
He’s come far in a short time. I do feel his PR tactics, his domination of GB news, his constant laughing image with beer in hand are working. He tries to portray the ordinary chap in the street but lives the lifestyle of his mate Trump who claims Farage is one of the best politicians. He hires helicopters for travel, slips abroad, will get an EU pension, soft soaps the grey wave with vouchers for cream teas ( certainly in my area) so there is much money being thrown at his developing celeb status. We have to realise how the public are gullible. He’s in for the long game. Associations with off shore tax issues and friends of billionaires associated with Epstein are worth exploring. Perhaps the media needs to delve deeper and exert their energies mostly on what lies behind his obnoxious facade, to divide and rule!
If this facing up to the issues I can’t begin to imagine what denial looks like. The country is splitting into tribes as an inevitable function of apparently unstoppable mass immigration set against the wishes of the electorate. The position of the author seems to be this ought not to be an issue if only people were more like him and less tribal. I think this means the indigenous population because the left tend to assume that incoming groups are either above or incapable of tribalism - a weakness of world view in and of itself. But vast swathes of the population are not as the author claims he is or asserts they ought to be. But he ploughs on regardless, against the grain, failing to work with what is and insisting on what ought to be. Tedious at best.
One thing to note is that Reform won selected List seats in Holyrood where they finished 3rd in come seats. They have no elected seats. The HR system was created so no party would have an outright majority. SNP have won the past 5 elections. The Tories haven’t had any majority in Scotland since 1955. I don’t expect Reform to be a threat anytime soon.
Neither do I expect them to be a threat in Scotland at the next Westminster GE. They got 15.8% vote share. Lord Offord came in third, a very poor third, after millions being thrown at his seat. The look on his face was disbelief. I thought he was going to burst into tears. Same in Glasgow Baillieston where they threw a huge amount of money into the seat assuming they’d walk it - they didn’t, not even close. Kerr walked away with literally tears in his eyes. They thought they’d be a shoe-in Banff & Buchan, but was not to be. At the next GE they are unlikely to win any Scottish seats under FPTP
You do love a good lost cause don’t you, Matt? How’s Bright Blue and liberal conservatism doing these days? Incredible how much your lot like to bleat on about democracy but have never checked to see whether there any historical examples of democracy being combined with rampant multiculturalism that didn’t lead to sectarian strife. Your political camp did this to yourselves
We should indeed fight Faragism. But it's not a done deal: Reform's vote share actually fell compared with last year's, and was concentrated in areas that previously voted for Brexit. Under FPTP that COULD give them victory in a General Election, but it could go the other way. Let's not tell people it's a foregone conclusion, or they might stop trying.
Thanks Matthew for that shrewd analysis. But I’m not sure that it’s possible to come up with a genuine counter-offer to address perceived grievances. Farage will always find an angle to appeal to people’s base instincts.
I’m afraid that right now there are only two options: 1. Electoral reform that should see a progressive coalition as the next government (just about - reform plus Tories got 43% in the local elections). 2. Farage gets in and only then do people realise they’ve been cheated, and disillusion sets in.
Please don't underestimate the contribution that both the OTT 'covid' measures and absurd gender ideology made in creating an audience of disgruntled folks herded together for social media targeting. Flooding their feed with images of boats full of identikit black men and nonsense climate crisis denials was easy; they were all ripe for Reform.
No, Reform haven't peaked, being backed by powerful interests in US based fossil fuels, animal ag, pharma, tech, media, AI, finance and arms.
Acknowledging some culpability due to insufferable, virtuous blind obedience to big pharma, who made/are making a killing out of both 'covid' and gender ideology might be a start in working out why Reform are so popular.
You might take more seriously historically unprecedented mass uncontrolled immigration, large scale illegal immigration and chronic failures of integration - not least the rape gangs, enabled or worse for at least two decades by every institution for reasons outlined by Louise Casey _ if you really want to understand the Reform surge and reverse it.
It is worth noting Farage’s track record: he doesn’t put the effort into detail.
There is nothing substantial backing up reform apart from vibes despite the import of Danny Kruger and some tories.
You would hope that an adequate media will take the opportunity to examine that in detail.
And observe that every vehicle he has created (ukip, Brexit) has fallen apart the minute he moves away.
Why is that? That is what the press ought to poking at. Sure it may be down to his megalomaniac tendencies.
Or maybe because he doesn’t embed policy. Purposefully. Montgomerie and Kruger, who were supposed to be fleshing this stuff out by now, have not yet delivered.
Why not?
The press needs to stop looking at Farage as a phenomenon and start asking why he consistently fails. Even with some extraordinary minds from the Tories imported.
What’s the pathology?
Once you diagnose the pathology you can argue against it. But right now you are all wondering why he seems to keep winning. Maybe the question is why he has never won. What’s missing?
Clue: policy. And deliberately so.
The thing that screws him is a manifesto and the policy documents behind it. There won’t be any. And he doesn’t want any. Because he wants to avoid commitment. And it’s happened again and again with him. No due diligence because it locks him down.
Might work for UKIP (europe!) or the Brexit party (Europe!).
That’s not going to work as a potential party of gov.
Now how you hang him on that is the media’s challenge.
Maybe ask him what his policy is with regards to government spend on the agricultural sector. No idea. But you can be guaranteed that there is no policy behind it, and he will look like an absolute buffoon when exposed.
But that is his absolute and consistent Achilles heel.
There is nothing there apart from vibes.
Kind of the point though. Many of the people supporting Farage (and Polanski tbf) don’t really care about policies, they care about something else, literally, some visible form of change.
If you ask Nigel what his policy on government spend on the agricultural sector is he will inevitably say something like ‘backing our British farmers etc. etc.” and what do you do with that? You can keep on asking the question and he will keep it evading it. It’s not a weakness as you term it, it’s one of his strengths, he’s incredibly hard to nail down beyond the vibes of the general electorate
Not so sure it’s incredibly hard to pin down. A ‘decent’ journo like Kuenssberg or Rigby could do it. ‘What is your position on the balance of tax evasion vs productive farming’ and watch him blather. And then hammer it home time after time. To the point it looks hilarious. As will be the case on any politician walking in pants down to a national election when they may be a potential party of government.
The issue is that the media is currently obsessed with Farage as an individual and his carry over from the EU debates + migration. They are the wrong questions.
If you want to make a candidate look like a fool you ask him questions he can’t answer. Over and over. The public isn’t stupid. They’ll get it.
The problem is that for whatever reason the media haven’t been pushed or inclined to do so.
He’s a shallow pool. Easily dispersed by a welly.
“I still think Reform can be defeated “
More specifics please.
He’s come far in a short time. I do feel his PR tactics, his domination of GB news, his constant laughing image with beer in hand are working. He tries to portray the ordinary chap in the street but lives the lifestyle of his mate Trump who claims Farage is one of the best politicians. He hires helicopters for travel, slips abroad, will get an EU pension, soft soaps the grey wave with vouchers for cream teas ( certainly in my area) so there is much money being thrown at his developing celeb status. We have to realise how the public are gullible. He’s in for the long game. Associations with off shore tax issues and friends of billionaires associated with Epstein are worth exploring. Perhaps the media needs to delve deeper and exert their energies mostly on what lies behind his obnoxious facade, to divide and rule!
If this facing up to the issues I can’t begin to imagine what denial looks like. The country is splitting into tribes as an inevitable function of apparently unstoppable mass immigration set against the wishes of the electorate. The position of the author seems to be this ought not to be an issue if only people were more like him and less tribal. I think this means the indigenous population because the left tend to assume that incoming groups are either above or incapable of tribalism - a weakness of world view in and of itself. But vast swathes of the population are not as the author claims he is or asserts they ought to be. But he ploughs on regardless, against the grain, failing to work with what is and insisting on what ought to be. Tedious at best.
One thing to note is that Reform won selected List seats in Holyrood where they finished 3rd in come seats. They have no elected seats. The HR system was created so no party would have an outright majority. SNP have won the past 5 elections. The Tories haven’t had any majority in Scotland since 1955. I don’t expect Reform to be a threat anytime soon.
Neither do I expect them to be a threat in Scotland at the next Westminster GE. They got 15.8% vote share. Lord Offord came in third, a very poor third, after millions being thrown at his seat. The look on his face was disbelief. I thought he was going to burst into tears. Same in Glasgow Baillieston where they threw a huge amount of money into the seat assuming they’d walk it - they didn’t, not even close. Kerr walked away with literally tears in his eyes. They thought they’d be a shoe-in Banff & Buchan, but was not to be. At the next GE they are unlikely to win any Scottish seats under FPTP
You do love a good lost cause don’t you, Matt? How’s Bright Blue and liberal conservatism doing these days? Incredible how much your lot like to bleat on about democracy but have never checked to see whether there any historical examples of democracy being combined with rampant multiculturalism that didn’t lead to sectarian strife. Your political camp did this to yourselves
We should indeed fight Faragism. But it's not a done deal: Reform's vote share actually fell compared with last year's, and was concentrated in areas that previously voted for Brexit. Under FPTP that COULD give them victory in a General Election, but it could go the other way. Let's not tell people it's a foregone conclusion, or they might stop trying.
Can’t fault the analysis
Can’t see Streeting, Burnham or Milliband tackling Farage. Rayner? Possibly. Common touch, straight talking?
Quite depressing considering the challenges we face. Though Farage was more of a Wilders than a Meloni. Can’t see him putting in the effort a PM needs
Thanks Matthew for that shrewd analysis. But I’m not sure that it’s possible to come up with a genuine counter-offer to address perceived grievances. Farage will always find an angle to appeal to people’s base instincts.
I’m afraid that right now there are only two options: 1. Electoral reform that should see a progressive coalition as the next government (just about - reform plus Tories got 43% in the local elections). 2. Farage gets in and only then do people realise they’ve been cheated, and disillusion sets in.
Excellent analysis.
Please don't underestimate the contribution that both the OTT 'covid' measures and absurd gender ideology made in creating an audience of disgruntled folks herded together for social media targeting. Flooding their feed with images of boats full of identikit black men and nonsense climate crisis denials was easy; they were all ripe for Reform.
No, Reform haven't peaked, being backed by powerful interests in US based fossil fuels, animal ag, pharma, tech, media, AI, finance and arms.
Acknowledging some culpability due to insufferable, virtuous blind obedience to big pharma, who made/are making a killing out of both 'covid' and gender ideology might be a start in working out why Reform are so popular.